Most cut days are fairly bland and unexciting.  A few trades happen, but most of the time the only stories come from releases and players moving to injured reserve.  The Patriots were far more involved this year with two trades and a few surprising moves.

Injury – Brandon McGowan was a surprise pickup last season and played well early on.  He seemed to disappear at the end of the year, but he still made a difference for the defense.  He will be missed, but not as much as some will make you think.

Trades – To replace McGowan, the Patriots traded a conditional pick to the Chiefs for safety Jarrad Page.  A very similar player, Page was holding out for a better contract.  He appears to be another rental project for the Pats, who might sign him to a long term contract if he impresses the team enough.  LB Tracy White, a career special teamer, was also in a trade.

Surprise moves – The biggest surprises were the cuts of long term special team players Pierre Woods, Sam Aiken, and Eric Alexander.  Woods and Aiken provided were solid reserve players while Alexander was on essentially every special team squad.  The other somewhat surprise was Derrick Burgess at OLB.  Had he not skipped the beginning of camp I would be more surprised, but if the coaches saw a lack of effort then it makes sense for him to go.  All other cuts were not surprising.

Undrafted additions – DL Kyle Love and LB Dane Fletcher made the roster this year after not being drafted.  Belichick has an outstanding track record with undrafted players, including Gary Guyton, Mike Wright, and Randall Gay.  Love will likely not be active during the season while Fletcher could help at LB.  I keep seeing him listed on the inside, although he is a tweener player who was a sack leader at Montana St so he might end up on the edge,  He has all the physical attributes, he just wasn’t drafted because he went to a small school.

On a final note, it looks like the Shawn Crable adventure hasn’t ended yet.  The Patriots signed him today to the practice squad.  No other team signed him during the preseason and the Patriots may have seen improvement over the past few months to take another chance.  This could be interesting to watch if the OLBs have issues early in the season.

Gronk certainly earned his roster spot for the 2010 season

A clearer picture emerged from the final preseason game on who will likely remain on the 2010 Patriots and who will need to find a new team.  Damione Lewis’ release has already been announced so we know he’s out.  Here’s who are most likely on the team this season:

QB: Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer – Pretty easy.  Zac Robinson didn’t show much, but he could be a practice squad addition this season.

HB: Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, Benjarvis Green-Ellis – The group remains the same this season as they will all have their individual roles that Belichick tends to give his runningbacks.  Green-Ellis is perpetually on the bubble, but his versatility will keep him on the team.  Thomas Clayton will be at the top of the speed dial if the Pats need a mid season signing.

WR: Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, Brandon Tate, Taylor Price, Sam Aiken, Matt Slater – Keeping seven receivers on the roster seems a little nutty, but we all remember last season.  Aiken stays as a special teams mainstay and Matt Slater’s versatility as a returner, gunner, receiver, and safety will give him a job on this team.

TE: Alge Crumpler, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez – The TEs have been the talk of the preseason and looked very impressive.  A good mix of receivers and blockers makes this group a potent threat and a possible change in offensive strategy.

OT: Matt Light, Sebastian Vollmer, Mark Levoir – This is a hard group to project.  Belichick doesn’t seem too impressed with this group after Levoir so expect a tackle or two on the practice squad.  Levoir is the pick because of his experience in the offense already.  Although they traded for Ojinnaka, Belichick does dwell on mistakes.  Once Kaczur is back his versatility will make a difference whether he starts or not.

C/G: Stephen Neal, Nick Kaczur, Dan Connelly, Dan Koppen, Rich Ohrnberger, Ryan Wendell – This group has a lot of young players who will need to step up.  Ohrnberger was asked to step up Thursday and Belichick had a lot of good words for his performance.  Wendell also seems to be a player the Patriots believe in so he makes it.

DL: Vince Wilfork, Gerard Warren, Mike Wright, Myron Pryor,Ron Brace, Brandon Deadrick – You’ll see a lot of these players on the field regularly as Belichick will use their strengths on difference defensive packages.  The real question will be who steps up for Ty Warren, out for the year with a knee injury.  Deadrick becomes the bubble selection because he didn’t play Thursday.  Looks like the team knows he’s staying on board or he would have been cut earlier this week.

OLB: Tully Banta-Cain, Rob Ninkovich, Jermain Cunningham, Derrick Burgess, Pierre Woods – Marques Murrell couldn’t keep his hot streak up and was edged out when Burgess returned.  Woods and Ninkovich provide too much special teams experience.

ILB: Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes, Gary Guyton, Eric Alexander – Tyrone McKenzie gets edged out by Eric Alexander, who has been a staple on special teams for years and used on short yardage situations as well.

CB: Darius Butler, Devin McCourty, Jonathan Wilhite, Terrence Wheatley, Kyle Arrington – Leigh Bodden’s injury means Wheatley actually gains from his strong preseason performance and makes the squad.  Arrington also stays due to his strong special teams abilities.

S: Brandon Merriweather, James Sanders, Brandon McGowan, Patrick Chung – Not a shocking group of names here.  Sanders was somewhat on the roster bubble, but he makes it with the major injuries over the past few weeks.

Specialists: Stephen Gostkowski, Zoltan Mesko, Jake Ingram – No competition means their jobs are safe.

There it is.  Don’t shocked if a trade occurs or one of the special team players are switched out, but I don’t expect many surprises with this group.

Today was the day for all NFL teams to reduce their rosters to 75 players.  Most moves for the Patriots were fairly mundane.  Daryl Richard, Bret Lockett, and Josh Barrett’s move to season ending Injured Reserve were expected while Terrence Johnson was expected to be cut eventually.  The shocker came with Leigh Bodden, who will miss the season with a shoulder injury.  His presence stabilized a secondary in turmoil last season.  Yes, they still gave up many big plays, but few were from his efforts.  One of the most underrated corners in football, he played consistently week in and week out.  Fortunately the Patriots are deep at cornerback, although no corners with more than two years of experience remain.  The talent is there to step up, but they will have to react like the 2004 Patriots rather than the 2008 Patriots.

The Patriots play their final preseason game Thursday, which will likely act as a final test for players on the bubble.  Brian Hoyer won the backup QB job last year with his play in the final game so don’t be surprised to see a young guy step up and solidify his roster spot.  After that, final cut day is Saturday, when teams must shed 22 players off the roster to get down to 53.  I’ll be back with predictions later this week on who makes the roster and who will be left behind.

Apologies for my absence, especially right before the first preseason game. I moved to LA this past week and have yet to get internet.  Sadly I missed both preseason games and I’m kicking myself for it.  This week I go on the search for a sports bar carrying the game and hope to bring you a better spotlight than the first two.  There are a few items to touch upon, so let’s get to it…

1.) Injury bug catches up to Pats – After avoiding major losses from injuries, the Pats seemed to drop like flies last week.  First, Nick Kazcur appears to be out for the year with a bad back, meaning a replacement for a replacement will be at left guard.  Torry Holt’s run for the 3rd WR spot ended with his knee injury, although he was aready on the bubble for a player who couldn’t play special teams.  The most important loss came with Ty Warren, who is one of the top 3-4 DEs in the NFL.  His play convinced the Patriots that they could invest in him and Vince Wilfork instead of paying a declining Richard Seymour.

2.) Derrick Burgess Returns/Positive News At OLB – On the bright side, the Patrots rgained depth at OLB with Burgess’ return.  His experience and pass rush ability will help the Pats compete this upcoming season.  Marques Murrell made a big play against the Saints early so he could be a dark horse for the OLB job.

3.) Wes Welker and the Receivers – Looks like he’ll be ready for the season opener.  With Julian Edelman entering his second season and depth added by Brandon Tate and Taylor Price, the WRs could end up being dangerous.  Against the Falcons the new TE corps looked strong and could make a major impact in the offense.

The 2010 Patriots Training Camp is off and running with some early excitement right off the bat.  Some thoughts on what has transpired:

1.) Youth and athleticism – The Patriots appear to have one of the youngest teams in Bill Belihick’s tenure as head coach.  This could be his most physically gifted squad as well with all the new additions.  Belchick goes into this season relying on few veteran upgrades like he has in past seasons.  Other than defensive line, almost every position will need a younger (and somewhat unproven) player to step up and play well.  Inside linebacker is a terrific example.  For years Belichick trusted Tedy Bruschi (age 27-35), Roman Phifer (age 33-36), Ted Johnson (age 28-32), and Junior Seau (age 37-40) to guard the middle.  Now, not one player will be near his thirties, with Gary Guyton the oldest as he turns 25 on Nov. 14th.  This team will be a little more hard to predict going into the season, however they can achieve much more than before.

2.) Outside linebacker keeps looking worse and worse – The most questionable position on this team has lived up to expectations.  Shawn Crable started the fun by failing his conditioning test and being released a day after, ending a injury plagued career of a promising player.  Then camp opened up and Belichick said everyone under contract showed up.  Unfortunately, he didn’t mention he wasn’t including Derrick Burgess.  Burgess appeared to be a strong option to play opposite of Tully Banta-Cain.  Without him, the Patriots are left to either insert unproven rookie Jermaine Cunningham or career special teamers Pierre Woods and Rob Ninkovich.  This will be an interesting situation to watch unfold over the coming month.

3.) Relatively positive reports thus far – Players will always go through ups and downs a camp, however the Patriots appear to be on the right track.  The injury bug has stayed away (unlike in Baltimore) and everyone passed the conditioning test (except for Crable, who was quickly released).  The young players have performed nicely, especially at positions where they are needed.

4.) A quick note on David Patten – he was fine player who worked hard to cultivate a fairly good NFL career.  He never put up big numbers, but he always seem to make a difference.  Players stick around for 13 years for a reason and he was a good character guy.  The Pats will miss his heart and leadership more than just his playing ability.

Here’s my final installment of the 2010 Patriots preview, this time looking at the overall team, their schedule, and a prediction for the season.

The team should be a classic Belichick team.  The offense should be more consistent with much needed depth added at WR and TE.  Tom Brady will have plenty of options and won’t need to look for Sam Aiken to step up as a WR.  The offensive line gains a little more experience this season, although Logan Mankins possible long holdout could hurt immensely.  The Pats do have enough depth to replace him but will need to make up for his absence.  I expect the offense to rank in the top 5 once again.  The defense has many question but more raw talent entering the season.  The defensive line should recover from the playoff embarrassment with solid free agent additions while the young secondary gains another year of experience.  The real question comes at linebacker, which has little depth at OLB.  If Derrick Burgess can become a good linebacker, the Patriots will have a huge weight off their backs.  The inside should be strong with a healthy Jerod Mayo and a rotation of Gary Guyton, Brandon Spikes, and Tyrone McKenzie.  Special teams should improve with new young talent.

Overall much of this season will hang on the defense.  If they can return to top 5 form, then the Pats will have an excellent chance to go to their 5th Belichick era Super Bowl.  If inconsistency continues, then the team is in trouble.

Schedule

Bengals 9/12 – This will be a good test for the defense.  If they can get pressure on Carson Palmer and keep him from hitting Chad Ochocinco, Terrell Owens, and Antonio Bryant deep then the Pats will have a easy win. End result: win.

Jets 9/19 and 12/19 – The Jets improvements are very overrated, however they will be a tougher team with Mark Sanchez entering his second season.  These are always tough games so I expect a split result again this year. End results: 1 win, 1 loss

Bills 9/26 and 12/26 – It’s the Bills.  Enough said. End results: 2 wins

Dolphins 10/4 and 1/2 – The Dolphins didn’t really improve outside of the Brandon Marshall deal.  Ronnie Brown has to have lost step from all of his injuries and the defense is still somewhat questionable.  I think the Pats will take at least one, if not two.  No matter what the games will be close. End results: 1 win, 1 loss.

Ravens 10/17 – Revenge game after a bye week? The Ravens might have improved a lot, but I think the Pats will find a way to win. End result: win.

Chargers 10/24 – The Chargers have been very successful the past few years, but the Jets exposed their weaknesses.  A lot of their core players are aging while two others might still be holding out on this date.  Also I hate Norv Turner, who is starting to hurt the team.  End result: win.

Vikings 10/31 – This game hinges on Brett Favre.  If he’s there, it’s a challenge since Belichick’s history against him is not strong.  I’ll call this a loss, unless Favre retires.  If he’s gone, then they don’t stand a chance.  End result: Loss.

Browns 11/7 – This team in turmoil doesn’t have a solid direction.  West coast minded president getting players for a Belichickian coach?  It’s not going to work.  End result: win.

Steelers 11/14 – Even with all their issues, I foresee the Steelers beating the Patriots right now.  One of those random games.  End result: loss.

Colts 11/21 – Well well well, the annual Pats-Colts bowl.  Belichick will have a wrinkle to surprise the Colts and they will respond in kind.  It will come down to the end of the game again.  Truthfully it’s a 50-50 proposition, but this could be one of the Colts weakest teams ever.  End result: win.

Lions 11/25 – It’s the Lions soooo… (even though I think they could improve leaps and bounds this season if all goes right). End result: win.

Bears 12/12 – The Bears have no idea where they are going and don’t be surprised to see an interim coach for them in this game. End result: win.

Packers 12/19 – The Packers go into this season with high expectations however a lot of their defense is out of position (Cullen Jenkins at OLB? Really?).  Pats win a close game.  End result: win.

Adding up the total puts the Patriots at 12-4.  If the team can win at least two of their games against top opponents (Colts, Vikings, Packers, and Ravens), then they should be well off.  Belichick teams always play tough against the best teams.  If this squad can’t step up, especially on the defensive side, then it could be a long season.

In any case, the Pats will continue winning.  I’d be incredibly shocked if this is a 9 or less win team.  They will be in the playoffs, the only question is how far they will go.

Look! Proof that Shawn Crable wore a Patriots uniform!

Today the Patriots announced two roster moves.

1st round pick Devin McCourty signed a 5 year contract worth $13.2 million. This was somewhat unexpected since only a few days ago a report said he would wait until more picks were signed.  Apparently, him or his agent decided his deal was fair and that he should report to camp.  As the final rookie signed, the Patriots have their roster ready for camp.

In an unsurprising move reported on Mike Reiss’ twitter, the Patriots also released former 3rd round pick LB Shawn Crable.  After two straight years of injuries, the team seems to have given up.  He played fairly well in six preseason games.  Unfortunately he never left the trainer’s room, never played in a regular season game, and came into camp this year hurt yet again.  Belichick doesn’t stand for players who don’t play so Crable was bound to be on his way out.

In my third installment previewing the 2010 Patriots, I am taking a look at the special teams and the coaching staff.

Kicker
Stephen Gostkowski proved last season he is one of the top 5 kickers in the NFL.  Consistent kicking year to year is difficult to find and the Patriots seem to have hit a home run.  The only concern will be his holder, who will change the first time since his rookie season.  Hopefully he can find his groove early and no problems will persist.

Punter
You gotta love a name like Zoltan Mesko.  He’s apparently a character and a great athlete.  He’s the size of a small linebacker and that should translate into huge punts.  The Patriots have tended to search for veteran punters with either big hangtime or great directional abilities so this is a new direction.  Expect the punting to improve this year, especially in situations where a long punt is needed rather than a pooch punt.

Return Game
Kickoff returning last season was a sad sight.  With inconsistent returners in 2009, expect the Patriots to take a close look at many different players to be the go-to guy.  Matt Slater is on the fringe and unless he wins the kick returning job, he won’t be coming back even with his versatility.  For punts, the Patriots should give Julian Edelman a shot while Wes Welker recovers.  Even when Welker comes back, I expect Edelman to remain on the return team so Welker can ease back into a heavier workload.

Special teamers
Belichick added tons of rookie special teamers to a roster already teaming with good players for the punting and kicking games.  Pierre Woods will likely lead the overall squad again and the infusion of young blood should improve athleticism and speed.  Expect the Patriots to use their deep roster to pick the best of the best, although that may mean giving up pretty good special teamers like gunner/WR/S Matt Slater.

Coaching Staff
Coaching and strategy will always be strong on a Bill Belichick staff.  One of the wonderful attributes of Belichick is his ability to adjust to the changing game.  He sees the game getting quicker so he creates depth in the secondary.  Although he selected no true coordinators and kept his staff small again, the Patriots coaching staff should be stronger.  Bill O’Brien has a full year as play caller under his belt and his creativity should advance like McDaniels’ strategies did.  Belichick will always have firm control over the defense, but don’t count out Pepper Johnson and new genius-heir-apparent Matt Patricia.  Corwin Brown will also be a huge asset to help the young secondary make big improvements.  This coaching staff will put the Patriots in the position to win a lot of games yet again.

Tomorrow, I have my final look at the team as a whole, their schedule, and a 2010 season prediction.

From Boston Herald

Continuing my preview of the 2010 Patriots from yesterday, here is a look ahead at their defense for the upcoming season.

DL
Even after the infamous Richard Seymour trade last season and losing Jarvis Green this offseason, the Patriots strength continues to be in their front three.  Vince Wilfork signed a new long term contract and transformed into a much more vocal leader this offseason.  He will continue to take up space at the nose and disrupt the strong running teams in the AFC East.  Ty Warren looks to have a bounce-back season since his play 2006-2008 was the whole reason the Pats felt comfortable trading Seymour.  The team hopes Mike Wright, Gerard Warren, Damione Lewis, Myron Pryor, or one of the other many draft picks of the last couple of seasons steps up as the new starting DE.  The line play should improve over last season with so many new faces competing for the job.

OLB
Easily the weakest position on the defense.  Tully Banta-Cain returned last season and played well, however he is only an average pass rusher at best and the not the most dominant player at the position.  The opposite side seems to be up for grabs, although Derrick Burrgess, with a full year of experience in New England under his belt, appears to be shifting to LB from 4-3 DE.  2nd round pick Jermaine Cunningham will have some growing pains and will likely see most of his time on special teams this season.  Rob Ninkovich was a pleasant surprise when he played (see the Indy game last year) and could contribute again.  Throw Pierre Woods and Shawn Crable into the mix and the Pats have lots of options, albeit very unattractive ones.

ILB
This position saw many ups and downs last season as Jerod Mayo struggled with injuries and Gary Guyton’s inconsistency against the run led to a breakdown late in the season.  This year, Mayo figures to join Wilfork as the young vocal leaders on defense and Guyton will be challenged by young additions.  Tyrone McKenzie missed last season with an injury and will compete against 2nd round pick Brandon Spikes for playing time inside.  Both are tough, instinctive inside linebackers and will challenge Guyton for playing time.  The depth will be much stronger this season and it should show against running teams like the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins.

CB
This position has seen steady improvement since the disaster that was 2008.  Leigh Bodden continued his under the radar success in the NFL and proved to be an excellent addition, hence his new long term contract this offseason.  Darius Butler came in last season and started 5 games, a good sign for a rookie in a Belichick defense.  His ball skills and athleticism give the Pats a good 1-2 punch they haven’t had since Samuels-Hobbs in 2007.  Adding an all-around player like Devin McCourty means the team wants three starting CBs as the NFL becomes more of a passing based league.  Jonathan Wilhite has shown the ability to hang on to receivers, however his complete lack of ball skills is aggravating.  Terrence Wheatley continues to be injury prone and is on the bubble.  I still expect good improvement against the pass, especially with the new talent on the corners.

S
Although Brandon Merriweather went to the Pro Bowl last season, his play was not consistent enough for the invitation.  He did take more steps towards becoming a dominant safety, however he still made mistakes that affect the outcome of games.  James Sanders appears to be on a short leash with his uninspiring play, however he did take back his job from Brandon McGowan last season.  Patrick Chung saw the normal amount of playing time for a rookie last season and is primed to take the other safety spot from Sanders and McGowan.  This will be an interesting position to watch, especially with new defensive assistant Corwin Brown who is known for his ability to coach safeties.

This is a young defense that needs to find an identity.  I don’t believe in “transition” or “interim” seasons.  You either win or you don’t.  There’s enough talent to succeed, however defensive guru Bill Belichick and top assistants Matt Patricia and Pepper Johnson need to fix the pass rush and build up the toughness to compete this season.

From Boston.com

Yay!!!  The summer doldrums of the NFL offseason are almost coming to an end and training camp begins July 29th!  The offseason is essentially over and new additions are doubtful at this point in the process.  Here’s an early look at the Patriots’ offense for 2010.

QB
Tom Brady continues to hold down the starting job and he still gives any team the best opportunity to win.  With all the criticism he received from last year he still played his second best season statistically.  I’d still rather have Tom Brady at the helm down with two minutes to go in the 4th quarter than any other QB.  If he goes down, Brian Hoyer showed good skills last preseason against the Giants and seems to have a good grasp of the offense.  Zac Robinson could surprise if he makes the roster.  No worries at this position.

HB
The weakest group on the offense for the second year in a row, the running backs did not change much.  Laurence Maroney ran well a lot of last season, especially at the goal line, however his fumbles killed drives.  Fred Taylor is 34, Sammy Morris is 33, and both have been injury prone the past few seasons.  The only known comes from Kevin Faulk, who still offers great value as a 3rd down and scat back in the shotgun.  Benjarvis Green-Ellis still offers a lot to this team, however he could be on the bubble.  In any case, the running backs need to offer more than last season to give the Pats more consistent success.

WR
The one issue with this position last season was depth.  Randy Moss and Wes Welker still dominated, however without a 3rd option they could not possibly succeed consistently.  Teams double teamed both players leaving Sam Aiken, a career special teams player, to pick up the scraps.  Torry Holt should be a great addition.  People will point to the Joey Galloway failure last year, but Holt has always been a better, more well rounded receiver and leader.  Edelman will step up again especially if Welker can’t begin the season.  Taylor Price adds much needed depth and Brandon Tate still gives the team enough value to keep him around in the event he overcomes his injury issues.  This group will surpass last year’s production and give Brady more options.

TE
The Patriots TEs last year turned out to be the biggest failure.  Preseason started with four former starters (Ben Watson, Chris Baker, David Thomas, and Alex Smith), ended with two, and the season failed to see much production.  Watson had a few good grabs, however he rarely made a difference in games while Chris Baker essentially disappeared.  This season, Alge Crumpler should be a great value as blocker and occasional receiver.  The rookie additions could make a huge impact.  Rob Gronkowski was the best all around TE in the draft and would be a top 15 selection without his back injury.  Aaron Hernandez played extremely well at Florida and gives the Patriots a big downfield target.  This group could excel, however they will most likely be fairly average as Gronkowski and Hernandez find their place in this offense.

OL
This will be an interesting group.  Matt Light is one of the smartest tackles in football, however he is slowing down.  He will still offer the Patriots a good season at left tackle, he’ll just need help more often.  Last year’s pleasant surprise Sebastian Vollmer will start this season and should only get better.  Dan Koppen will once again be one of the smartest centers in football, although a better played season would be nice from him.  Stephen Neal played better than most realize at guard.  The only issue is his injury history: he hasn’t played a full season since 2005.  The biggest problem could come at left guard, where Logan Mankins is holding out.  Fortunately the Patriots are fairly deep on the inside and Nick Kaczur might fair better there than he did at tackle.  No matter who takes over inside Mankins would be an enormous loss, although the Pats will find a way to get by, especially with the a top 5 offensive line coach in Dante Scarnecchia.

The offense certainly has questions at many positions, however Tom Brady has won with much less and he can do it again.  I still cannot tell you how the Patriots went to the AFC Championship with Reche Caldwell as a leading receiver, which is evidence of how Brady can overcome offensive shortcomings.  As long as he remains healthy the offense will continue to be a strong point for this team.  If QB Coach/Offensive Coordinator without the title Bill O’Brien gets more creative with his play calling then the Patriots will show a lot of improvement from last season.

Tomorrow, I’ll preview the (again) reworked defense.