Here’s my final installment of the 2010 Patriots preview, this time looking at the overall team, their schedule, and a prediction for the season.

The team should be a classic Belichick team.  The offense should be more consistent with much needed depth added at WR and TE.  Tom Brady will have plenty of options and won’t need to look for Sam Aiken to step up as a WR.  The offensive line gains a little more experience this season, although Logan Mankins possible long holdout could hurt immensely.  The Pats do have enough depth to replace him but will need to make up for his absence.  I expect the offense to rank in the top 5 once again.  The defense has many question but more raw talent entering the season.  The defensive line should recover from the playoff embarrassment with solid free agent additions while the young secondary gains another year of experience.  The real question comes at linebacker, which has little depth at OLB.  If Derrick Burgess can become a good linebacker, the Patriots will have a huge weight off their backs.  The inside should be strong with a healthy Jerod Mayo and a rotation of Gary Guyton, Brandon Spikes, and Tyrone McKenzie.  Special teams should improve with new young talent.

Overall much of this season will hang on the defense.  If they can return to top 5 form, then the Pats will have an excellent chance to go to their 5th Belichick era Super Bowl.  If inconsistency continues, then the team is in trouble.

Schedule

Bengals 9/12 – This will be a good test for the defense.  If they can get pressure on Carson Palmer and keep him from hitting Chad Ochocinco, Terrell Owens, and Antonio Bryant deep then the Pats will have a easy win. End result: win.

Jets 9/19 and 12/19 – The Jets improvements are very overrated, however they will be a tougher team with Mark Sanchez entering his second season.  These are always tough games so I expect a split result again this year. End results: 1 win, 1 loss

Bills 9/26 and 12/26 – It’s the Bills.  Enough said. End results: 2 wins

Dolphins 10/4 and 1/2 – The Dolphins didn’t really improve outside of the Brandon Marshall deal.  Ronnie Brown has to have lost step from all of his injuries and the defense is still somewhat questionable.  I think the Pats will take at least one, if not two.  No matter what the games will be close. End results: 1 win, 1 loss.

Ravens 10/17 – Revenge game after a bye week? The Ravens might have improved a lot, but I think the Pats will find a way to win. End result: win.

Chargers 10/24 – The Chargers have been very successful the past few years, but the Jets exposed their weaknesses.  A lot of their core players are aging while two others might still be holding out on this date.  Also I hate Norv Turner, who is starting to hurt the team.  End result: win.

Vikings 10/31 – This game hinges on Brett Favre.  If he’s there, it’s a challenge since Belichick’s history against him is not strong.  I’ll call this a loss, unless Favre retires.  If he’s gone, then they don’t stand a chance.  End result: Loss.

Browns 11/7 – This team in turmoil doesn’t have a solid direction.  West coast minded president getting players for a Belichickian coach?  It’s not going to work.  End result: win.

Steelers 11/14 – Even with all their issues, I foresee the Steelers beating the Patriots right now.  One of those random games.  End result: loss.

Colts 11/21 – Well well well, the annual Pats-Colts bowl.  Belichick will have a wrinkle to surprise the Colts and they will respond in kind.  It will come down to the end of the game again.  Truthfully it’s a 50-50 proposition, but this could be one of the Colts weakest teams ever.  End result: win.

Lions 11/25 – It’s the Lions soooo… (even though I think they could improve leaps and bounds this season if all goes right). End result: win.

Bears 12/12 – The Bears have no idea where they are going and don’t be surprised to see an interim coach for them in this game. End result: win.

Packers 12/19 – The Packers go into this season with high expectations however a lot of their defense is out of position (Cullen Jenkins at OLB? Really?).  Pats win a close game.  End result: win.

Adding up the total puts the Patriots at 12-4.  If the team can win at least two of their games against top opponents (Colts, Vikings, Packers, and Ravens), then they should be well off.  Belichick teams always play tough against the best teams.  If this squad can’t step up, especially on the defensive side, then it could be a long season.

In any case, the Pats will continue winning.  I’d be incredibly shocked if this is a 9 or less win team.  They will be in the playoffs, the only question is how far they will go.

Additions: None

Losses: None

Victor Martinez – After being traded to Boston at the deadline last summer, Martinez should be much more comfortable entering 2010. He will have had two months in 2009, the entire off season, and all of spring training to become familiar with the Sox pitching staff, something he didn’t benefit from last year. While he will never admit to it, being thrown into the fire like that combined with the fact that he never knew where he was playing likely took it’s toll on him. And still, he hit .336 with 8 home runs and 41 RBI in the two months that he was here. Along with becoming more familiar with the team’s pitchers, Martinez will come to the ballpark every day knowing he is going to be penned in the line up as the starting catcher. Sorry Jason Varitek, but your time has past. Having Martinez for the entire season provides an immediate boost to an offense that already scored the third most runs in baseball last year. As long as Victor can stay healthy, he will produce.

Prediction: .292/.383/.506, 24 HR, 102 RBI, 95 Runs

Jason Varitek – The Red Sox could have exercised a team option on Varitek for $5 million, but instead declined. Varitek, getting no substantial offers elsewhere, was forced to opt for his $3 million player option and a backup role in Boston. It is unclear how Varitek will fit into this years roster, but one can assume he will likely catch once a week to give Victor a day off here and there. My initial thought was that he would become Josh Beckett’s personal backstop to avoid anymore hissy fits from Beckett, but Victor caught him in the final month of 2009, in his playoff start, and in all bullpen sessions both spring training starts. His true value lies in his knowledge of the American League. Hopefully, he and Victor are sitting down before every game going over a plan of attack for that days line up. Otherwise, we would be better served with Mark Wagner.

Prediction: .240/.305/.390, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 30 Runs

Recap: After the trade last summer a position of weakness immediately became a position of strength for the Red Sox. There are very few premier catchers in baseball, and Joe Mauer is the only one I would rather have outside of Victor. His injury plagued 2008 seems to be behind him and more of a fluke than anything. Victor’s offense combined with Tek’s knowledge should combine for a great season from the Boston backstops. The only weakness would be the ability to keep runners at first base. The Sox would rather their pitchers focus on the batter than holding a runner and the Martinez and Tek are both below average at getting the ball to second. Although, Victor has said that he watched tape this off season and noticed mechanical flaws that he has since fixed, but we will see. Regardless, the offense that he brings is well worth giving up a base here and there.

Overall: A-